NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Upset alert for Clemson, North Carolina? College football bold predictions for Week 1

Editor’s note: Follow all the action in Week 1 of college football with USA TODAY Sports’ live coverage.

It's the first weekend of the college football season and NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerthere's bound to be some ups and downs for teams that don't have the benefit of preseason games. That creates an opportunity for shocking performances and unexpected outcomes across the country.

Which games will feature these surprises? Who could be an upset victim? We know upsets are coming. But where will they take place?

That’s why the USA TODAY Sports college football staff is here. Scooby Axson, Jace Evans, Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith and Eddie Timanus weigh in with their bold predictions for Week 1 of the college football season:

Scooby Axson

Considering how inept its offense was last year, expect Iowa to score more than 30 points on Saturday, something it did a grand total of one time in 2022. Because offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz is on the hot seat (or maybe he is not depending on the day), it will be interesting to see if Iowa pushes the tempo behind quarterback Cade McNamara. McNamara should have more help all the way around as the Hawkeyes return 16 starters. But anything is an improvement from a team that was last in the Big Ten in total offense and averaged just 17 points a game. 

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Jace Evans

North Carolina is the team on upset alert the most this weekend … although, would it really even be one? Yes, the Tar Heels enter with a number next to their name – No. 20 – and South Carolina does not. But the Gamecocks just missed the rankings, slotting in second behind Iowa in the “others receiving votes” department of the US LBM Coaches Poll. And these teams are coming off very similar campaigns (North Carolina went 9-5 in 2022; South Carolina went 8-5). South Carolina wins a shootout on a neutral field, putting an early dent in UNC QB Drake Maye’s Heisman Trophy hopes.

Paul Myerberg

In the only Top 25 matchup of the weekend, LSU bottles up Jordan Travis and the Florida State running game to win by more than a touchdown and solidify its place as one of the top teams in the country. This would be a win that keeps on giving for the Tigers as the Seminoles enter ACC play and make a run at Clemson for the conference title. And given the lack of marquee games on the slate, topping FSU could push LSU into the top four and draw one or more first-place votes.

Erick Smith

When we last left the Duke Blue Devils, they were cruising to their ninth win of the season in the Military Bowl. It was an amazing debut season for Mike Elko, who found a quarterback in Riley Leonard and improved one of the nation's worst defenses into a top 30 unit. So with No. 9 Clemson coming to town for a Labor Day opener, there's an opportunity for a program-defining win. The Tigers will have an inexperienced quarterback and a new offensive coordinator. A fast start for the Blue Devils with the home crowd on their side could make this one a nail-biter for four quarters, something few would expect.

Eddie Timanus

Texas-San Antonio at Houston will be the sneaky-good game of the weekend. OK, that might not be all that bold. Last year’s Week 1 meeting on UTSA’s home field certainly delivered as the Cougars prevailed 37-35. Both programs have moved into new neighborhoods as this season kicks off, with Houston about to experience life in the Big 12 and UTSA now in the Cougars’ former digs in the American. But they should still be evenly matched and able to put up a slew of points. Veteran QB Frank Harris is back for the Roadrunners, while the Cougars will hand the reins to former Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith. Will Houston take the rematch as well? Probably, but it should be close again.

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